Researched Article - Review #2

I believe that the topic which is discussed is quite interesting and relatable for many people, though especially for those interested in sports.  You did a nice job working your way through the topic and bringing in many important facts and ideas.  Additionally, you were able to add a bit of humor to lighten the mood while still including the true gravity of the situation at hand.  Although much of the article was very well written structural, I felt as if it was a bit difficult to read due to several grammatical errors.  Most notably, there were several run-on sentences.  These issues can all be solved easily just by reading back through the article and recognizing what is wrong.  Overall, I felt that the structure of the article was nice and it allowed for the information to flow with relative ease.  Nonetheless, there are still a few areas where you could improve.  First of all, it appears in some sections that Blatter is your main focus.  While it is fine (and definitely beneficial) to include information about him, make sure you relate it back to your main point(s).  You should also try to give the readers reminders as often as possible (without being annoying) of how all of this affects them.  For example, you could continue your discussion on FIFA paying countries and how this all might affect everyday people.  One additionally and relatively minor issue which I saw is that your sources seemed relatively few and far between.  Make sure you cite all information that isn’t original.  Also, one of your main sources was from John Oliver, which is fine, but you might not want to base all of your information off of what he says, since these shows tend to be quite biased.  I think that once your resolve the grammatical errors, you will have a very nice article.

Researched Article Rough Draft #2: Reviews

The topic of gender identification is definitely a controversial and therefore inherently interesting subject.  The overall flow is fairly nice, although there are a few briefs points which can be left out, since they disrupt the flow.  In particular, it appears that the points made about the one-child policy have no real correlation to the main subject of the paper.  If you can find a way to tie this back into the topic of gender identification, then great, but if not, then it may be best to leave it out of the paper.  There were several grammatical errors throughout the paper, which is understandable since this is simply a draft.  These errors can be easily fixed by reading back through the paper (and through spellcheck).  Also, i’m not sure if they were grammatical errors or not, but you used “gender” and “sex” interchangeably throughout the article, even though you defined them as being different early in the paper.  Consistency is key!  Additionally, there were a few points which are factually incorrect or do not make sense logically.  For example, there is a claim about the sexes only differing by a chromosome, but one chromosome can have such an impact.  Additionally, you claim that women “can’t throw, I can’t think straight, I can’t defend our country, I can’t play with the boys.” None of that is actually true, so I’m not sure if it is just an over exaggeration or something else.  Regardless, it may be best to be more specific or leave this section out since it leads the reader to believe that you are not very knowledgeable about the topic.  It would definitely be beneficial for you to bring up the other side of the argument and then attempt to dispute it, in order to give the reader the impression that you fully understand the topic.  For example, you left out many important aspects of the sexes which differentiate males from females, such as testosterone and others.    

This article is very well written and intriguing.  There are only a few grammatical errors which can easily be fixed.  I liked how you discovered a problem through experimentation and then proceeded to solve the problem, either through research or further experimentation.  Additionally, it greatly helped that the topic is very interesting and somewhat relatable.  Also, it is mysterious.  Since many people do not know very much about dreams, and especially lucid dreaming, you picked a great topic to explore.  Although I enjoyed reading the article, and you did a good job keeping the reader entertained, I felt as if you could have added a little more research.  Rather than coming to a fairly vague conclusion, further research could help you to be more conclusive.  I understand that you included plenty of bits and pieces of research throughout, but I felt as if I was left hanging as a reader.  In order to solve this minor issue, there are several possible solutions.  One of the most obvious one I can think of would be to develop an idea in the beginning which you are trying to solve or determine the validity of.  There are other possible methods as well, but this way, when you get to the end you will be able to be fully encompassing by including a more well defined conclusion.  Nonetheless, I thought the paper was very well written and I liked how you took a more personal approach to the article, which is much more relatable for the reader.  Although the personal aspect is certainly nice, in addition to the aforementioned suggestion regarding research, it may also be beneficial if you add a few more formal sections.  That is merely a suggestions though, since I believe that the paper is already very solid, but it could possibly benefit from more hard facts.

Introduction + 600 words

Meteorologists have an extremely influential and important job.  Many people check the weather first thing in the morning and may continue to check the weather throughout the day.  It is crucial that the forecast is correct, or else future forecasts may be ignored or discarded by viewers.  If the meteorologist “lies” to you with one forecast, why should you believe him or her during the next forecast?  This eventual lack of belief could lead to safety issues when warnings are ignored.  For this reason, meteorologists are under a great deal of pressure to present an accurate forecast.  Unfortunately, creating an accurate forecast is not as easy as it may sound.  An incredible amount of data and uncertainty are involved with these forecasts.  It may seem like a bit too much to ask for someone to predict the future with 100% accuracy, but nonetheless, this is what the public demands. 

Many statistics and other facts will be presented in this article to help discover the accuracy of weather forecasts.  There are limitless amounts of statistical data available to show the accuracy of the forecasts.  People’s perceptions and feelings regarding these forecasts will also be analyzed to better determine why weather forecasts are often considered to be inaccurate or invalid.  Finally, the difficulties of creating weather predictions will be discussed in order for the reader to gain a greater understanding of the field.  Hopefully the reader will realize that predicting the weather is not just a coin flip or simply looking at computer models.  

There are several possible methods of approaching this topic since there are so many different aspects involved.  It was determined that investigating the accuracy of forecasts should be the foremost goal.  This way, it will be possible to discover whether or not people’s anger and frustration with meteorologist is justified in any way.  Since forecasts are issued by countless forecasters many times a day all across the globe, there is essentially an infinite amount of statistics to show the accuracy of forecasts. 

One of the most important aspects of a weather forecast is the precipitation aspect.  For many people, it does not matter what the temperature is, they just want to know if it will rain or snow or do nothing.  In one specific study, weather forecasts for a long period of time, from August through September, were analyzed.  In this analysis, it was determined that the precipitation forecasts were extremely accurate.  Out of the 134 days observed, it only rained once when a 0% chance of rain was predicted.  The other observations show that the other forecasts (for 10%, 20%, and so on) were also quite accurate.  For example, it only rained once out of the ten times a 10% chance of rain was given.  This means it rained 10% of the time when there was a 10% chance of rain, which is about perfect.  Some other numbers were further off, most notably the 50% chance, since it rained all four times that the forecast called for a 50% chance of precipitation.  Since there were only four scenarios when a 50% chance of rain was in the forecast, it is difficult to come to a solid conclusion with that.  It would be better to look at the entire picture, which shows that the forecasts were relatively accurate.  Of note, the forecasts became slightly less accurate when the forecast was further out.  In other words, a forecast of 80% chance of rain nine days in advance is going to be much less accurate than a forecast for one or two days in advance.  There are several reasons for this lack of accuracy as time goes on, which will be discuss in latter sections of this article.   

Although precipitation is important to people, temperature also plays a vital role in people’s lives.  Similar to the precipitation observations, there is a well-defined trend of decreased accuracy as time goes on.  The forecasts for the first few days were quite accurate and consistent.  Figure 5 best shows this accuracy with several graphs indicating the amount of times the forecasted temperature was a certain amount of degrees off from the observed temperature.  During the first for forecast days, it is clear that the actual temperature was typically zero, one, or two degrees off from the predicted temperature.  This shows an incredible accuracy which many people may not be aware of.  Nonetheless, the forecast accuracy does decline with later days in the forecast.  For example, the consensus with day nine is that the forecast has little to no accuracy at all.  The predicted and actual temperatures varied by as much twenty degrees.  While these may seem very costly and potentially dangerous, it is important to realize that the forecast was ultimately accurate within a few days.  This means that if people understand the inaccurate nature of longer term forecast, then they will not be as disappointed when the forecast is relatively far off.  Instead, the focus should be on short term forecasts (within about five days) in order to receive the most accurate forecasts. 

In addition to the important aspect of accuracy, it is also vital to understand why people want to know the weather, as well as what is most important to these people.  In an expansive survey completed by the American Meteorological Society, many of these various questions were answered.  

Researched Article- Introductions

Introduction #1:

Meteorologists have an extremely influential and important job.  Many people check the weather first thing in the morning and may continue to check the weather throughout the day.  It is crucial that the forecast is correct, or else future forecasts may be ignored or discarded by viewers.  If the meteorologist “lies” to you with one forecast, why should you believe him or her during the next forecast?  This eventual lack of belief could lead to safety issues when warnings are ignored.  For this reason, meteorologists are under a great deal of pressure to present an accurate forecast.  Unfortunately, creating an accurate forecast is not as easy as it may sound.  An incredible amount of data and uncertainty are involved with these forecasts.  It may seem like a bit too much to ask for someone to predict the future with 100% accuracy, but nonetheless, this is what the public demands. 

            Many factors play into the idea that weather forecasts a typically inaccurate.  Some of this is simply perception, but also forecasts are obviously not completely accurate.  This issue is very important due to the simple fact that everyone is affected by the weather.  It is always best to know exactly what will happen with the weather and when it will happen, but this is not possible.  Instead, people need to be aware of the complexity involved with the weather so they can be prepared for possible variations in the forecast.  A viewer more willing to accept the uncertainty is much safer than one who completely discounts a forecast due to previous experience, and ultimately the goal of meteorologist is to keep people safe from impending weather.     

Introduction #2:

            Meteorologists receive threats almost every day, but as expected, the number and intensity of these threats increases exponentially when a forecast is deemed to be incorrect.  These meteorologists, such as Robin Reed of Roanoke, Virginia, try their best to keep viewers and their families safe.  Meteorologists do not intentionally make these forecasts wrong, nor is it easy to develop a correct forecast.  Many factors go into these forecasts, so what makes a forecast incorrect?  Can you really expect someone to be able to tell you the exact temperature down to a degree?  Considering the great deal of improvement in the meteorological field over the years, weather forecasts do not deserve to be criticized in the manner that they are.  Forecasts are oftentimes right, but these times are ignored and instead the focus is places on the few times that the forecasts are incorrect.  Many people experience this same phenomenon in other situations.  For example, your line in the grocery store also seems to go the slowest, but this is only true because you tend to forget or not notice the many times that your line was the quickest. 

            Many statistics and other facts will be presented in this article to help discover the accuracy of weather forecasts.  There are limitless amounts of statistical data available to show the accuracy of the forecasts.  People’s perceptions and feelings regarding these forecasts will also be analyzed to better determine why weather forecasts are often considered to be inaccurate or invalid.  Finally, the difficulties of creating weather predictions will be discussed in order for the reader to gain a greater understanding of the field.  Hopefully the reader will realize that predicting the weather is not just a coin flip or looking a computer models.       

           

Introduction #3:

For many years I have had an in depth interest in weather.  As a current meteorology student, I am constantly bombarded with questions about the upcoming forecast.  Following the storm or weather event which I predicted, I almost always receive complaints regardless of the outcome of the forecast.  The complainer will find something, whether it is the timing of the storm, the amount of precipitation, the wind, or the school closing or lack thereof, to complain about.

            While complaints are commonplace in this business, it appears that many people are quite satisfied with weather forecasts.  As a matter of fact, statistic show that 74% of people are either satisfied or very satisfied with the forecasts.  Nonetheless, there are still plenty of people who are not satisfied with weather forecasts.  These unsatisfied people make it a point that meteorologists are “never right” and can still keep their jobs even if they are only right half of the time.  The amount of uncertainty and difficulty which goes into these forecasts make these unsatisfied viewers seem very uneducated and ignorant.  Countless other career fields have a much lower rate of accuracy or success.  For example, in the medical field 26% of illnesses are misdiagnosed (Panovich).  Predicting the future is not as easy as it may sound.    

            Due to the large amount of complicated information which goes into the production of a weather forecast, as well as viewer expectation of an exact prediction, there is a great deal of disagreement over whether or not the forecasts are actually accurate.  

Researched Article- Dinner Table

The primary purpose of my paper is to decide whether or not weather forecasts are actually as inaccurate as many people claim.  In order to help me present arguments effectively, I will need to bring in outside support.  At my “dinner table,” I will need to include statistics and opinions from various different sources.  One of the primary sources of information will be from meteorologists.  Meteorologists will be very important sources of information since they deal with the complaints regarding “wrong” forecasts day in and day out.  If at all possible, I will ask a local meteorologist and professor (Robin Reed) about the specific details of these threats and complaints which he received.  Aside from possible input from Robin Reed, I also plan on using information which is published online by meteorologists.  For example, outspoken meteorologist Brad Panovich (of North Carolina) has posted a blog related to this hot topic. 

For information not related directly to meteorology, I may need to bring in sources in the field of psychology.  This way, I will be able to get information related closer to the perception side of the argument.  Hopefully, I will learn more about how people perceive weather forecasts.  Even though I hope to find some of this information through the psychology side, I also believe that I will learn about perception from the complaints that meteorologists receive.    

In addition to people’s perception and the meteorologists’ personal feelings related to this topic, actual statistics will also need to be introduced to the reader.  This way, the reader will not feel like he or she is being forced to believe anything in particular.  That being said, the data and statistics will still hopefully help me to come to a clear conclusion.  Some of this data may come from meteorologists who analyze this type of information or weather services (such as the National Weather Service or The Weather Channel).  Even still, some of the data may come from areas outside of the meteorology field, which may be better since there would be little to no question of bias. 

I firmly believe that the combination of meteorologists, outside data, and psychology related works will lead to a firm argument and presentation which will help better educate the reader.  

America's Wandering Families

In “America’s Wandering Families,” a chapter in the book Growing Up Empty, Loretta Schwartz-Nobel presents a touching and potentially emotional topic to the reader.  Schwartz-Nobel begins the chapter by stating simple facts and statistics.  These facts help the author develop her voice or ethos.  It is apparent from the beginning that Schwartz-Nobel is very knowledgeable about the topic which she is writing about.  Knowing that the author is well-versed in the topic encourages the reader to believe that what he or she is reading has some level of importance.  Also, this is a great example of logos or support. This informational background is important to setting up the future stories and dialogue. 

In addition to the author developing a strong voice, she also appeals strongly to the author’s emotions.  Nobody (or at least no sane person) would want people to be living out on the streets starving and homeless.  Therefore, the topic which Schwartz-Nobel writes about is able to draw the reader into the story.  While, the topic is certainly appealing, it could also be quite depressing if overused.  Thankfully, the overuse of this possibly depressing topic is avoided by Schwartz-Nobel by incorporating personal stories of homeless people and those helping these unfortunate people.  These stories are effective in making the chapter more approachable and interesting. 

Aside from the more technical aspects of the writing, there are also smaller aspects of the chapter which help to make it very effective.  First of all, Schwartz-Nobel uses a great amount of dialogue, including some extended quotes.  These quotes add a more human and welcoming aspect to the chapter.  This makes the piece much easier to read, therefore creating an overall effective piece of writing.  In addition to dialogue, the author also writes in an orderly manner which allows the writing to flow very nicely.  From the statistics to the stories about homeless shelters and homeless people, there are always smooth transitions will help to make the piece seem completely cohesive.  Any lack in cohesion could distract the reader and create an ineffective piece.  Overall, these minor features combined with the more technical feature lead to a very effective and influential chapter.  

Researched Article Model

While I was looking for researched articles to possibly base my own article on, I came across a very interesting one.  Titled “From Broadway to Backpacks,” the article highlights the importance of musical theater to young children.  Even though I have absolutely no interest in the topic which Rekha S. Rajan, the author, wrote about I still believe that the article will be quite beneficial for my future writing.  The primary reason why I have decided to base my article off of this one is the format.  Rajan broke everything down in a simple and logical format.  I strongly believe that this format and setup will be crucial for me to present my argument and facts while still engaging the reader.

Rajan begins her article by giving basic background information regarding who she is and a brief description regarding why she is writing the article.  I think that this is important so that the reader knows who the author is a bit more personally.  This makes it much more likely for the reader to continue on through the rest of the piece.  After the introduction, Rajan gives background information on the subject, which is crucial so the reader is able to understand everything that Rajan mentions later in the article.  She continues by analyzing the topic in more depth.  This gradual transition, ranging from the introduction to background to more detailed information, will likely be a good basis and format for me to use in my article.  Rajan even divides the specific information into separate sections.  Although I probably will not divide the sections in the same fashion that Rajan did, I do still plan on divided various points, arguments, or research by paragraphs.  Also, the order of these main points is very important.  Without a smooth transition between paragraphs, and more specifically ideas, it is unlikely that the reader will want to continue reader.  Additionally, better flow, similar to what Rajan showed creates a seemingly more legitimate and important paper.  Rajan closes her paper with findings and then a conclusion.  Since my topic isn’t an experiment, I likely won’t have as many findings as she did, but I will certainly have a conclusion to present to the reader.

Overall, it is clear that Rajan’s article presents a clear and effective format which I can easily adopt for my own article.