Introduction #1:
Meteorologists
have an extremely influential and important job. Many people check the weather first thing in
the morning and may continue to check the weather throughout the day. It is crucial that the forecast is correct,
or else future forecasts may be ignored or discarded by viewers. If the meteorologist “lies” to you with one
forecast, why should you believe him or her during the next forecast? This eventual lack of belief could lead to
safety issues when warnings are ignored.
For this reason, meteorologists are under a great deal of pressure to
present an accurate forecast. Unfortunately,
creating an accurate forecast is not as easy as it may sound. An incredible amount of data and uncertainty are
involved with these forecasts. It may
seem like a bit too much to ask for someone to predict the future with 100%
accuracy, but nonetheless, this is what the public demands.
Many factors play into the idea that
weather forecasts a typically inaccurate.
Some of this is simply perception, but also forecasts are obviously not
completely accurate. This issue is very
important due to the simple fact that everyone is affected by the weather. It is always best to know exactly what will happen
with the weather and when it will happen, but this is not possible. Instead, people need to be aware of the
complexity involved with the weather so they can be prepared for possible
variations in the forecast. A viewer
more willing to accept the uncertainty is much safer than one who completely
discounts a forecast due to previous experience, and ultimately the goal of
meteorologist is to keep people safe from impending weather.
Introduction #2:
Meteorologists receive threats
almost every day, but as expected, the number and intensity of these threats
increases exponentially when a forecast is deemed to be incorrect. These meteorologists, such as Robin Reed of
Roanoke, Virginia, try their best to keep viewers and their families safe. Meteorologists do not intentionally make
these forecasts wrong, nor is it easy to develop a correct forecast. Many factors go into these forecasts, so what
makes a forecast incorrect? Can you
really expect someone to be able to tell you the exact temperature down to a
degree? Considering the great deal of improvement
in the meteorological field over the years, weather forecasts do not deserve to
be criticized in the manner that they are.
Forecasts are oftentimes right, but these times are ignored and instead the
focus is places on the few times that the forecasts are incorrect. Many people experience this same phenomenon
in other situations. For example, your
line in the grocery store also seems to go the slowest, but this is only true
because you tend to forget or not notice the many times that your line was the
quickest.
Many statistics and other facts will
be presented in this article to help discover the accuracy of weather forecasts. There are limitless amounts of statistical
data available to show the accuracy of the forecasts. People’s perceptions and feelings regarding
these forecasts will also be analyzed to better determine why weather forecasts
are often considered to be inaccurate or invalid. Finally, the difficulties of creating weather
predictions will be discussed in order for the reader to gain a greater
understanding of the field. Hopefully
the reader will realize that predicting the weather is not just a coin flip or
looking a computer models.
Introduction #3:
For many years I have had an in depth
interest in weather. As a current meteorology
student, I am constantly bombarded with questions about the upcoming forecast. Following the storm or weather event which I
predicted, I almost always receive complaints regardless of the outcome of the
forecast. The complainer will find
something, whether it is the timing of the storm, the amount of precipitation,
the wind, or the school closing or lack thereof, to complain about.
While complaints are commonplace in
this business, it appears that many people are quite satisfied with weather
forecasts. As a matter of fact,
statistic show that 74% of people are either satisfied or very satisfied with
the forecasts. Nonetheless, there are
still plenty of people who are not satisfied with weather forecasts. These unsatisfied people make it a point that
meteorologists are “never right” and can still keep their jobs even if they are
only right half of the time. The amount
of uncertainty and difficulty which goes into these forecasts make these
unsatisfied viewers seem very uneducated and ignorant. Countless other career fields have a much
lower rate of accuracy or success. For example,
in the medical field 26% of illnesses are misdiagnosed (Panovich). Predicting the future is not as easy as it
may sound.
Due to the large amount of
complicated information which goes into the production of a weather forecast,
as well as viewer expectation of an exact prediction, there is a great deal of disagreement
over whether or not the forecasts are actually accurate.
No comments:
Post a Comment