Introduction + 600 words

Meteorologists have an extremely influential and important job.  Many people check the weather first thing in the morning and may continue to check the weather throughout the day.  It is crucial that the forecast is correct, or else future forecasts may be ignored or discarded by viewers.  If the meteorologist “lies” to you with one forecast, why should you believe him or her during the next forecast?  This eventual lack of belief could lead to safety issues when warnings are ignored.  For this reason, meteorologists are under a great deal of pressure to present an accurate forecast.  Unfortunately, creating an accurate forecast is not as easy as it may sound.  An incredible amount of data and uncertainty are involved with these forecasts.  It may seem like a bit too much to ask for someone to predict the future with 100% accuracy, but nonetheless, this is what the public demands. 

Many statistics and other facts will be presented in this article to help discover the accuracy of weather forecasts.  There are limitless amounts of statistical data available to show the accuracy of the forecasts.  People’s perceptions and feelings regarding these forecasts will also be analyzed to better determine why weather forecasts are often considered to be inaccurate or invalid.  Finally, the difficulties of creating weather predictions will be discussed in order for the reader to gain a greater understanding of the field.  Hopefully the reader will realize that predicting the weather is not just a coin flip or simply looking at computer models.  

There are several possible methods of approaching this topic since there are so many different aspects involved.  It was determined that investigating the accuracy of forecasts should be the foremost goal.  This way, it will be possible to discover whether or not people’s anger and frustration with meteorologist is justified in any way.  Since forecasts are issued by countless forecasters many times a day all across the globe, there is essentially an infinite amount of statistics to show the accuracy of forecasts. 

One of the most important aspects of a weather forecast is the precipitation aspect.  For many people, it does not matter what the temperature is, they just want to know if it will rain or snow or do nothing.  In one specific study, weather forecasts for a long period of time, from August through September, were analyzed.  In this analysis, it was determined that the precipitation forecasts were extremely accurate.  Out of the 134 days observed, it only rained once when a 0% chance of rain was predicted.  The other observations show that the other forecasts (for 10%, 20%, and so on) were also quite accurate.  For example, it only rained once out of the ten times a 10% chance of rain was given.  This means it rained 10% of the time when there was a 10% chance of rain, which is about perfect.  Some other numbers were further off, most notably the 50% chance, since it rained all four times that the forecast called for a 50% chance of precipitation.  Since there were only four scenarios when a 50% chance of rain was in the forecast, it is difficult to come to a solid conclusion with that.  It would be better to look at the entire picture, which shows that the forecasts were relatively accurate.  Of note, the forecasts became slightly less accurate when the forecast was further out.  In other words, a forecast of 80% chance of rain nine days in advance is going to be much less accurate than a forecast for one or two days in advance.  There are several reasons for this lack of accuracy as time goes on, which will be discuss in latter sections of this article.   

Although precipitation is important to people, temperature also plays a vital role in people’s lives.  Similar to the precipitation observations, there is a well-defined trend of decreased accuracy as time goes on.  The forecasts for the first few days were quite accurate and consistent.  Figure 5 best shows this accuracy with several graphs indicating the amount of times the forecasted temperature was a certain amount of degrees off from the observed temperature.  During the first for forecast days, it is clear that the actual temperature was typically zero, one, or two degrees off from the predicted temperature.  This shows an incredible accuracy which many people may not be aware of.  Nonetheless, the forecast accuracy does decline with later days in the forecast.  For example, the consensus with day nine is that the forecast has little to no accuracy at all.  The predicted and actual temperatures varied by as much twenty degrees.  While these may seem very costly and potentially dangerous, it is important to realize that the forecast was ultimately accurate within a few days.  This means that if people understand the inaccurate nature of longer term forecast, then they will not be as disappointed when the forecast is relatively far off.  Instead, the focus should be on short term forecasts (within about five days) in order to receive the most accurate forecasts. 

In addition to the important aspect of accuracy, it is also vital to understand why people want to know the weather, as well as what is most important to these people.  In an expansive survey completed by the American Meteorological Society, many of these various questions were answered.  

Researched Article- Introductions

Introduction #1:

Meteorologists have an extremely influential and important job.  Many people check the weather first thing in the morning and may continue to check the weather throughout the day.  It is crucial that the forecast is correct, or else future forecasts may be ignored or discarded by viewers.  If the meteorologist “lies” to you with one forecast, why should you believe him or her during the next forecast?  This eventual lack of belief could lead to safety issues when warnings are ignored.  For this reason, meteorologists are under a great deal of pressure to present an accurate forecast.  Unfortunately, creating an accurate forecast is not as easy as it may sound.  An incredible amount of data and uncertainty are involved with these forecasts.  It may seem like a bit too much to ask for someone to predict the future with 100% accuracy, but nonetheless, this is what the public demands. 

            Many factors play into the idea that weather forecasts a typically inaccurate.  Some of this is simply perception, but also forecasts are obviously not completely accurate.  This issue is very important due to the simple fact that everyone is affected by the weather.  It is always best to know exactly what will happen with the weather and when it will happen, but this is not possible.  Instead, people need to be aware of the complexity involved with the weather so they can be prepared for possible variations in the forecast.  A viewer more willing to accept the uncertainty is much safer than one who completely discounts a forecast due to previous experience, and ultimately the goal of meteorologist is to keep people safe from impending weather.     

Introduction #2:

            Meteorologists receive threats almost every day, but as expected, the number and intensity of these threats increases exponentially when a forecast is deemed to be incorrect.  These meteorologists, such as Robin Reed of Roanoke, Virginia, try their best to keep viewers and their families safe.  Meteorologists do not intentionally make these forecasts wrong, nor is it easy to develop a correct forecast.  Many factors go into these forecasts, so what makes a forecast incorrect?  Can you really expect someone to be able to tell you the exact temperature down to a degree?  Considering the great deal of improvement in the meteorological field over the years, weather forecasts do not deserve to be criticized in the manner that they are.  Forecasts are oftentimes right, but these times are ignored and instead the focus is places on the few times that the forecasts are incorrect.  Many people experience this same phenomenon in other situations.  For example, your line in the grocery store also seems to go the slowest, but this is only true because you tend to forget or not notice the many times that your line was the quickest. 

            Many statistics and other facts will be presented in this article to help discover the accuracy of weather forecasts.  There are limitless amounts of statistical data available to show the accuracy of the forecasts.  People’s perceptions and feelings regarding these forecasts will also be analyzed to better determine why weather forecasts are often considered to be inaccurate or invalid.  Finally, the difficulties of creating weather predictions will be discussed in order for the reader to gain a greater understanding of the field.  Hopefully the reader will realize that predicting the weather is not just a coin flip or looking a computer models.       

           

Introduction #3:

For many years I have had an in depth interest in weather.  As a current meteorology student, I am constantly bombarded with questions about the upcoming forecast.  Following the storm or weather event which I predicted, I almost always receive complaints regardless of the outcome of the forecast.  The complainer will find something, whether it is the timing of the storm, the amount of precipitation, the wind, or the school closing or lack thereof, to complain about.

            While complaints are commonplace in this business, it appears that many people are quite satisfied with weather forecasts.  As a matter of fact, statistic show that 74% of people are either satisfied or very satisfied with the forecasts.  Nonetheless, there are still plenty of people who are not satisfied with weather forecasts.  These unsatisfied people make it a point that meteorologists are “never right” and can still keep their jobs even if they are only right half of the time.  The amount of uncertainty and difficulty which goes into these forecasts make these unsatisfied viewers seem very uneducated and ignorant.  Countless other career fields have a much lower rate of accuracy or success.  For example, in the medical field 26% of illnesses are misdiagnosed (Panovich).  Predicting the future is not as easy as it may sound.    

            Due to the large amount of complicated information which goes into the production of a weather forecast, as well as viewer expectation of an exact prediction, there is a great deal of disagreement over whether or not the forecasts are actually accurate.  

Researched Article- Dinner Table

The primary purpose of my paper is to decide whether or not weather forecasts are actually as inaccurate as many people claim.  In order to help me present arguments effectively, I will need to bring in outside support.  At my “dinner table,” I will need to include statistics and opinions from various different sources.  One of the primary sources of information will be from meteorologists.  Meteorologists will be very important sources of information since they deal with the complaints regarding “wrong” forecasts day in and day out.  If at all possible, I will ask a local meteorologist and professor (Robin Reed) about the specific details of these threats and complaints which he received.  Aside from possible input from Robin Reed, I also plan on using information which is published online by meteorologists.  For example, outspoken meteorologist Brad Panovich (of North Carolina) has posted a blog related to this hot topic. 

For information not related directly to meteorology, I may need to bring in sources in the field of psychology.  This way, I will be able to get information related closer to the perception side of the argument.  Hopefully, I will learn more about how people perceive weather forecasts.  Even though I hope to find some of this information through the psychology side, I also believe that I will learn about perception from the complaints that meteorologists receive.    

In addition to people’s perception and the meteorologists’ personal feelings related to this topic, actual statistics will also need to be introduced to the reader.  This way, the reader will not feel like he or she is being forced to believe anything in particular.  That being said, the data and statistics will still hopefully help me to come to a clear conclusion.  Some of this data may come from meteorologists who analyze this type of information or weather services (such as the National Weather Service or The Weather Channel).  Even still, some of the data may come from areas outside of the meteorology field, which may be better since there would be little to no question of bias. 

I firmly believe that the combination of meteorologists, outside data, and psychology related works will lead to a firm argument and presentation which will help better educate the reader.  

America's Wandering Families

In “America’s Wandering Families,” a chapter in the book Growing Up Empty, Loretta Schwartz-Nobel presents a touching and potentially emotional topic to the reader.  Schwartz-Nobel begins the chapter by stating simple facts and statistics.  These facts help the author develop her voice or ethos.  It is apparent from the beginning that Schwartz-Nobel is very knowledgeable about the topic which she is writing about.  Knowing that the author is well-versed in the topic encourages the reader to believe that what he or she is reading has some level of importance.  Also, this is a great example of logos or support. This informational background is important to setting up the future stories and dialogue. 

In addition to the author developing a strong voice, she also appeals strongly to the author’s emotions.  Nobody (or at least no sane person) would want people to be living out on the streets starving and homeless.  Therefore, the topic which Schwartz-Nobel writes about is able to draw the reader into the story.  While, the topic is certainly appealing, it could also be quite depressing if overused.  Thankfully, the overuse of this possibly depressing topic is avoided by Schwartz-Nobel by incorporating personal stories of homeless people and those helping these unfortunate people.  These stories are effective in making the chapter more approachable and interesting. 

Aside from the more technical aspects of the writing, there are also smaller aspects of the chapter which help to make it very effective.  First of all, Schwartz-Nobel uses a great amount of dialogue, including some extended quotes.  These quotes add a more human and welcoming aspect to the chapter.  This makes the piece much easier to read, therefore creating an overall effective piece of writing.  In addition to dialogue, the author also writes in an orderly manner which allows the writing to flow very nicely.  From the statistics to the stories about homeless shelters and homeless people, there are always smooth transitions will help to make the piece seem completely cohesive.  Any lack in cohesion could distract the reader and create an ineffective piece.  Overall, these minor features combined with the more technical feature lead to a very effective and influential chapter.  

Researched Article Model

While I was looking for researched articles to possibly base my own article on, I came across a very interesting one.  Titled “From Broadway to Backpacks,” the article highlights the importance of musical theater to young children.  Even though I have absolutely no interest in the topic which Rekha S. Rajan, the author, wrote about I still believe that the article will be quite beneficial for my future writing.  The primary reason why I have decided to base my article off of this one is the format.  Rajan broke everything down in a simple and logical format.  I strongly believe that this format and setup will be crucial for me to present my argument and facts while still engaging the reader.

Rajan begins her article by giving basic background information regarding who she is and a brief description regarding why she is writing the article.  I think that this is important so that the reader knows who the author is a bit more personally.  This makes it much more likely for the reader to continue on through the rest of the piece.  After the introduction, Rajan gives background information on the subject, which is crucial so the reader is able to understand everything that Rajan mentions later in the article.  She continues by analyzing the topic in more depth.  This gradual transition, ranging from the introduction to background to more detailed information, will likely be a good basis and format for me to use in my article.  Rajan even divides the specific information into separate sections.  Although I probably will not divide the sections in the same fashion that Rajan did, I do still plan on divided various points, arguments, or research by paragraphs.  Also, the order of these main points is very important.  Without a smooth transition between paragraphs, and more specifically ideas, it is unlikely that the reader will want to continue reader.  Additionally, better flow, similar to what Rajan showed creates a seemingly more legitimate and important paper.  Rajan closes her paper with findings and then a conclusion.  Since my topic isn’t an experiment, I likely won’t have as many findings as she did, but I will certainly have a conclusion to present to the reader.

Overall, it is clear that Rajan’s article presents a clear and effective format which I can easily adopt for my own article.  

Do You Want Lies with That?

               Morgan Spurlock, the author of “Do You Want Lies with That?” presents a decent argument to prove that overconsumption is a major issue in the world today.  While Spurlock is somewhat successful in her overall goal, she seems to wander quite a bit throughout the article.  The only real and detailed mentions of overeating come at the beginning of the article and in the very last paragraph.  The rest of the article (the middle or body) mentions some specific examples or numbers which prove that overconsumption is a real problem.  Unfortunately, Spurlock includes too much information which is not related to the main theme or subject.  For example, she writes a large amount of her paper on tobacco and cigarette use.  Spurlock discusses how cigarette use has decreased and the specific effects of the warnings on the products.  She also mentions these warnings on countless other products.  While this is interesting for the reader, it does not contribute to her overall message, therefore decreasing the effectiveness of the article.

               Several parts of the body of the article could be seen as an expansion from the main subject of overeating, but this information is not very closely related.  For example, knowing that the auto industry has been booming as of late and that there are more drugs and cars today than ever before is helpful for the reader.  That being said, the reader does not need to read that the rates of smoking decreased from 42 percent in 1965 to 23 percent in 2000.  This does everything except support Spurlock’s argument.  The general conclusion which can be drawn is that expansion is beneficial, but only if it is closely related to the main purpose or theme of the article.  Otherwise, the information can harm the argument or distract the reader. 

               Personally, I thought the article was quite interesting because of the personal insight from the reader.  Although the personal input was nice, it would have been more beneficial if the author included a few more facts or pieces of research to prove her point.  Nonetheless, she was still able to form a solid (although a bit vague and disconnected) argument in the end.  

The Influence of "Junk Science" and the Role of Science Education

“The Influence of ‘Junk Science’ and the Role of Science Education” was a very interesting article which effectively combined information and opinion.  Personally, I found the article, written by Lee Ann Fisher Baron, to be quite intriguing.  I believe the article was of interest to me primarily because of the topic and the manner in which it was presented.  The topic is definitely an important subject worthy of the reader’s time.  In addition to the overall intrigue brought up by the topic itself, the author also presents her opinion in multiple places throughout the article.  The use of her opinion creates a more personable or authentic feel to the piece.  Without the personal insight, it would be difficult to grasp who the author actually is, as a real human being. 

               Even though Baron does a great job including her own opinion, she fails to include a decent amount of substantial evidence to back up her claims.  Much of the article includes short segments of information to support her points.  While this is effective, it may be better if she including a larger section or example as a main focus.  Nonetheless, the small bits of evidence combined with the personal opinions and insights certainly helped contribute to an effective researched article. 

               Another example of Baron excelling in her writing is the way in which she expands as she writes.  She begins with a personal example of how error is a regular part of science, and then continues by explaining situations where something is “accepted” without being tested.  After listing several of these types of examples, Baron transitions into the cause and solution portion of the article.  Here, she (as obvious by the titled) lists and explains the causes of this problem.  Once again, she brings in a few specific examples, such as the SAT scores and chemistry textbook.  In the end, it is apparent that Baron has taken a central idea and greatly expanded upon it to further her argument and create a solid and well-written piece.  The last paragraph of the article is a perfect conclusion which wraps up all of the information presented throughout the article by giving a simple and easy to understand solution. 

iGod

               Nicholas Carr’s article “iGod” is a very informative piece of literature.  Throughout a majority of the article, Carr is providing facts and opinions from experts on artificial intelligence and related topics.  This helps Carr to develop a sense of authority and knowledge, even though he is just the presenter of knowledge. 

The use of authoritative and well known figures, such as Google’s founders not only builds credibility, but it also helps attract the attention of the reader.  When the reader recognizes a name or organization in an article, he or she will likely have some level of interest.  Also, the author uses dialogue at the beginning of the article to help bring the reader into the “discussion.”  He wants the reader to feel as if he or she is very involved.  Another way in which Carr engages the reader is through small sections of personal reactions.  Carr never voices his opinion for an extended period of time, but he does include a brief sentence or two of reactions.  Any sort of personal interaction between the author and the reader is beneficial for reader engagement.    

Although Carr is very effective in engaging the reader closer to the beginning of the article, Carr seems to be quite repetitive in the latter portions of the article.  The repetitiveness can easily lead the reader to become distract and/or stop reading.  One of the key things to keep in mind when writing a researched article is that the author is strapped for time.  Therefore, any repetition or useless information has the potential to disengage the reader.  Not only does Carr seem to repeat a lot of similar or closely related information, but he also appears to become a bit distracted in his purpose throughout the article.  Closer to the end of the article, he writes more than a page about George Dyson and an essay which he wrote.  While somewhat related to the main point of the article, this section takes away from the rest of the article because the information presented here does not build on the rest main point.  In my opinion, this section helped to disengage the reader.  The information was not particularly interesting (which isn’t necessarily that important), but more importantly, the information was not related to the primary topic.   

Reviews of Rough Drafts- Experiment Paper

Emily’s Paper:

This essay used a great combination of experience and facts.  The facts and outside information was interwoven very nicely.  Also, the paragraphs were split up in a good way which helped the essay to flow very nicely.  The only possible hindrance to the flow of the paper was the existence of a few grammatical or spelling mistakes.  This can be fixed very easily though, so just be sure to read through the paper again to correct these minor errors.  It appears that most of the errors exist because you are trying to be very informal.  It is nice that you are informal so the paper is more relatable, but try to avoid these errors.  I noticed that a majority of the outside information is other peoples’ opinions, which is definitely valuable information, but it may be a little more convincing if you could find a few more numbers to back up the opinions.  It may be difficult because of the subject, but a few percentages (i.e. how many women wear makeup) should help.  At the end, the conclusion (although interesting) is a bit vague and unrelated to the topic and experiment which was written about.  Try instead to wrap up your discoveries and how the experiment has (or has not) affected you and your daily life. 

Quinn’s Paper:

This essay provides a great deal of narrative which allows the reader to be connected closer to you (the author).  Although it was nice that you had a lot of personal feelings and thoughts, I felt like there was not enough useful outside information.  The parts about the giraffe and the Matis people were a bit humorous and lightened the mood of the paper, which is nice.  It may help, though, if you were to add more outside or factual information to support your arguments.  The support that you do include seems a bit vague and you refute it, so therefore it doesn’t support or fit your argument very well at all.  Throwing in a few numbers or statistical facts should enhance your paper quite significantly.  Another issue that I noticed in the paper was that you seemed to jump around with no particular order or flow.  This may be because your topic wasn’t very well defined at the onset so it was difficult for me to follow.  Therefore, the first step is likely to clarify your topic/experiment and what you set out to determine or solve from the beginning.  Once you complete the previously mentioned problems and correct minor grammatical errors, your final paper will be solid.

Andrew’s Paper:

This rough draft is very well written, with only a few grammatical errors and great flow thus far.  The narrative which is used throughout the introductory paragraph is very productive in lightening the mood and encapsulating the reader.  Without a doubt, the comparisons         and descriptions in the first part of the draft are very beneficial for the paper.  It would be great if you could continue this tone throughout the rest of the paper.  You do a very good job transitioning into your problem and what you are going to do to try and solve the issue.  There is absolutely no question as to what your problem is since you clearly define it, as well as showing it through the narrative.  Aside from the minor grammatical or spelling mistakes, there were not any noticeable issues with the rough draft.  Once you finish writing the rest of the paper, be sure to include outside information to help supplement your paper.  I liked how you included a section about unexpected findings, as this will definitely help make your paper better.  Overall, I think this is set up to be a very solid paper, especially if you can continue writing as you did in the introduction.